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Federal Budget 2022-23 Analysis

March 31, 2022 by victoria

A balancing act

Billed as a Budget for families with a focus on relieving short-term cost of living pressures, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s fourth Budget also has one eye firmly on the federal election in May.

At the same time, the government is relying on rising commodity prices and a forecast lift in wages as unemployment heads towards a 50-year low to underpin Australia’s post-pandemic recovery.

While budget deficits and government debt will remain high for the foreseeable future, the Treasurer is confident that economic growth will more than cover the cost of servicing our debt.

The big picture

The Australian economy continues to grow faster and stronger than anticipated, but the fog of war in Ukraine is adding uncertainty to the global economic outlook. After growing by 4.2 per cent in the year to December, Australia’s economic growth is expected to slow to 3.4 per cent in 2022-23.ⁱ

Unemployment, currently at 4 per cent, is expected to fall to 3.75 per cent in the September quarter. The government is banking on a tighter labour market pushing up wages which are forecast to grow at a rate of 3.25 per cent in 2023 and 2024. Wage growth has improved over the past year but at 2.3 per cent, it still lags well behind inflation of 3.5 per cent.ⁱⁱ

The Treasurer forecast a budget deficit of $78 billion in 2022-23 (3.4 per cent of GDP), lower than the $88.9 billion estimate as recently as last December, before falling to $43 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) by the end of the forward estimates in 2025-26.

Net debt is tipped to hit an eye-watering $715 billion (31 per cent of GDP) in 2022-23 before peaking at 33 per cent of GDP in June 2026. This is lower than forecast but unthinkable before the pandemic sent a wrecking ball through the global economy.

Rising commodity prices

The big improvement in the deficit has been underpinned by the stronger than expected economic recovery and soaring commodity prices for some of our major exports.

Iron ore prices have jumped about 75 per cent since last November on strong demand from China, while wheat prices have soared 68 per cent over the year and almost 5 per cent in March alone after the war in Ukraine cut global supply.^iii,^iv

Offsetting those exports, Australia is a net importer of oil. The price of Brent Crude oil prices have surged 73 per cent over the year, with supply shortages exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.^v Australian households are paying over $2 a litre to fill their car with petrol, adding to cost of living pressures and pressure on the government to act.

With the rising cost of fuel and other essentials, this is one of the areas targeted by the Budget. The following rundown summarises the measures most likely to impact Australian households.

Cost of living relief

As expected, the Treasurer announced a temporary halving of the fuel excise for the next six months which will save motorists 22c a litre on petrol. The Treasurer estimates a family with two cars who fill up once a week could save about $30 a week, or $700 in total over six months.

Less expected was the temporary $420 one-off increase in the low-to-middle-income tax offset (LMITO). It had been speculated that LMITO would be extended for another year, but it is now set to end on June 30 as planned.

The extra $420 will boost the offset for people earning less than $126,000 from up to $1,080 previously to $1,500 this year. Couples will receive up to $3,000. The additional offset, which the government says will ease inflationary pressures for 10 million Australians, will be available when people lodge their tax returns from 1 July.

The government will also make one-off cash payments of $250 in April to six million people receiving JobSeeker, age and disability support pensions, parenting payment, youth allowance and those with a seniors’ health card.

Temporarily extending the minimum pension drawdown relief

Self-funded retirees haven’t been forgotten. The temporary halving of the minimum income drawdown requirement for superannuation pensions will be further extended, until 30 June 2023.

This will allow retirees to minimise the need to sell down assets given ongoing market volatility. It applies to account-based, transition to retirement and term allocated superannuation pensions.

More support for home buyers

A further 50,000 places a year will be made available under various government schemes to help more Australians buy a home.

This includes an additional 35,000 places for the First Home Guarantee where the government underwrites loans to first-home buyers with a deposit as low as 5 per cent. And a further 5,000 places for the Family Home Guarantee which helps single parents buy a home with as little as 2 per cent deposit.

There is also a new Regional Home Guarantee, which will provide 10,000 guarantees to allow people who have not owned a home for five years to buy a new property outside a major city with a deposit of as little as 5 per cent.

Support for parents

The government is expanding the paid parental leave scheme to give couples more flexibility to choose how they balance work and childcare.

Dad and partner pay will be rolled into Paid Parental Leave Pay to create a single scheme that gives the 180,000 new parents who access it each year, increased flexibility to choose how they will share it.

In addition, single parents will be able to take up to 20 weeks of leave, the same as couples.

Health and aged care

One of the Budget surprises in the wake of the Aged Care Royal Commission findings, was the absence of spending on additional aged care workers and wages.

Instead, $468 million will be spent on the sector with most of that ($340 million) earmarked to provide on-site pharmacy services.

The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) is also set for a $2.4 billion shot in the arm over five years, adding new medicines to the list. PBS safety net thresholds will also be reduced, so patients with high demand for prescription medicines won’t have to get as many scripts.

A $547 million mental health and suicide prevention support package includes a $52 million funding boost for Lifeline.

And as winter approaches, the government will spend a further $6 billion on its COVID health response.

Jobs, skills development and small business support

As the economy and demand for skilled workers grow, the government is providing more funding for skills development with a focus on small business. It will provide a funding boost of $3.7 billion to states and territories with the potential to provide 800,000 training places.

In addition, eligible apprentices and trainees in “priority industries” will be able to access $5,000 in retention payments over two years, while their employers will also receive wage subsidies.

Small businesses with annual turnover of less than $50 million will be able to deduct a bonus 20 per cent for the cost of training their employees, so for every $100 they spend, they receive a $120 tax deduction.

Similarly, for every $100 these businesses spend to digitalise their businesses, up to an outlay of $100,000, they will receive a $120 tax deduction. This includes things such as portable payment devices, cyber security systems and subscriptions to cloud-based services.

Looking ahead

With an election less than two months away, the government will be hoping it has done enough to quell voter concerns about the rising cost of living, while safeguarding Australia’s ongoing economic recovery.

The local economy faces strong headwinds from the war in Ukraine, the cost of widespread flooding along much of the east coast and the ongoing pandemic.

Much depends on the hopes for the rise in employment and wages to offset rising inflation, and the timing and extent of interest rate rises by the Reserve Bank.

If you have any questions about any of the Budget measures, don’t hesitate to call us.

Information in this article has been sourced from the Budget Speech 2022-23 and Federal Budget support documents.

It is important to note that the policies outlined in this publication are yet to be passed as legislation and therefore may be subject to change.

i https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/gdp-growth-annual

ii https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/annual-wage-growth-increases-23

iii https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/iron-ore

iv, v https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

This Newsletter provides general information only. The content does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider taking financial advice tailored to your personal circumstances. We have representatives that are authorised to provide personal financial advice. Please see our website https://superevo.elephantintheboardroom.org or call 02 9098 5055 for more information on our available services.

Market movements & review video – March 2022

March 3, 2022 by victoria

Stay up to date with what’s happened in Australian markets over the past month.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February increased volatility on global financial markets and fuelled uncertainty about the pace of global economic recovery.

Please get in touch if you’d like assistance with your personal financial situation.

Autumn 2022

March 3, 2022 by victoria

It’s March already which marks the beginning of Autumn. While this is traditionally the season when things cool down, the economic and political scene is gearing up with the Federal Budget later this month and a federal election expected by May.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February increased volatility on global financial markets and uncertainty about the pace of global economic recovery. Notably, crude oil prices surged above $US100 a barrel, breaking the $100 mark for the first time since 2014. Rising oil prices add to inflationary pressures and could set back global economic recovery in the wake of COVID. In Australia, the price of unleaded petrol hit a record 179.1c a litre in February and is expected to go above $2.

In the US, inflation hit a 40-year high of 7.5% in January. Australian inflation is a tamer 3.5% and this, along with unemployment at a 13-year low of 4.2%, is raising expectations of interest rate hikes. The Reserve Bank stated earlier in February that a rate hike in 2022 was ‘’plausible” but that it is ‘’prepared to be patient”. The Reserve is also looking for annual wage growth of 3% before it lifts rates, but with annual wages up just 2.3% in the December quarter Australian workers are going backwards after inflation. The average wage is currently around $90,917 a year.

Before the latest events in Ukraine, consumer and business confidence were improving. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer rating rose slightly in February to 101.8 points, while the NAB business confidence index was up 15.5 points in January to +3.5 points.

War in Ukraine has triggered a flight to safety, with bonds, gold and the US dollar rising while global shares plunged initially before rebounding but remain volatile. The Aussie dollar closed at US72.59c.

Avoid the rush: Get ready for June 30

It seems like June 30 rolls around quicker every year, so why wait until the last minute to get your finances in order?

With all the disruption and special support measures of the past two years, it’s possible your finances have changed. So it’s a good idea to ensure you’re on track for the upcoming end-of-financial-year (EOFY).

Starting early is essential to make the most of opportunities on offer when it comes to your super and tax affairs.

New limits for super contributions

Annual contribution limits for super rose this financial year, so maximising your super contributions to boost your retirement savings is even more attractive.

From 1 July 2021, most people’s annual concessional contributions cap increased to $27,500 (up from $25,000). This allows you to contribute a bit extra into your super on a before-tax basis, potentially reducing your taxable income.

If you have any unused concessional contribution amounts from previous financial years and your super balance is less than $500,000, you may be able to “carry forward” these amounts to further top up.

Another strategy is to make a personal contribution for which you claim a tax deduction. These contributions count towards your $27,500 cap and were previously available only to the self-employed. To qualify, you must notify your super fund in writing of your intention to claim and receive acknowledgement.

Non-concessional super strategies

If you have some spare cash, it may also be worth taking advantage of the higher non-concessional (after-tax) contributions cap. From 1 July 2021, the general non concessional cap increased to $110,000 annually (up from $100,000).

These contributions can help if you’ve reached your concessional contributions cap, received an inheritance, or have additional personal savings you would like to put into super. If you are aged 67 or older, however, you need to meet the requirements of the work test or work test exemption.

For those under age 67 (previously age 65) at any time during 2021-22, you may be able to use a bring-forward arrangement to make a contribution of up to $330,000 (three years x $110,000).

To take advantage of the bring-forward rule, your total super balance (TSB) must be under the relevant limit on 30 June of the previous year. Depending on your TSB, your personal contribution limit may be less than $330,000, so it’s a good idea to talk to us first.

More super things to think about

If you plan to make tax-effective super contributions through a salary sacrifice arrangement, now is a good time to discuss this with your employer, as the ATO requires documentation prior to commencement.

Another option if you’re aged 65 and over and plan to sell your home is a downsizer contribution. You can contribute up to $300,000 ($600,000 for a couple) from the proceeds without meeting the work test.

And don’t forget contributing into your low-income spouse’s super account could score you a tax offset of up to $540.

Get your SMSF shipshape

If you have your own self-managed super fund (SMSF), it’s important to check it’s in good shape for EOFY and your annual audit.

Administrative tasks such as updating minutes, lodging any transfer balance account reports (TBARs), checking the COVID relief measures (residency, rental, loan repayment and in-house assets), and undertaking the annual market valuation of fund assets should all be started now.

It’s also sensible to review your fund’s investment strategy and whether the fund’s assets remain appropriate.

Know your tax deductions

It’s also worth thinking beyond super for tax savings.

If you’ve been working from home due to COVID-19, you can use the shortcut method to claim 80 cents per hour worked for your running expenses. But make sure you can substantiate your claim.

You also need supporting documents to claim work-related expenses such as car, travel, clothing and self-education. Check whether you qualify for other common expense deductions such as tools, equipment, union fees, the cost of managing your tax affairs, charity donations and income protection premiums.

Review your investment portfolio

After a year of strong investment market performance, now is also a good time to review your investments outside super. Benchmark your portfolio’s performance and check whether any assets need to be sold or purchased to rebalance in line with your strategy.

You might also consider realising any investment losses, as these can be offset against capital gains you made during the year.

If you would like to discuss EOFY strategies and super contributions, call our office.

How to calm those market jitters

It’s been a rocky start to the year on world markets but that doesn’t mean you should hit the panic button. Staying the course is generally the best course, but that’s easier said than done when there’s a big market fall.

In January markets plunged some 10 per cent but then staged a recovery. That volatile start may well be an indication of how the year pans out.ⁱ

The key reasons for this volatility are fear of inflation, the prospect of rising interest rates and pressure on corporate profits. Add to that ongoing concern surrounding COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and it is hardly surprising markets are jittery.

But fear and the inevitable corrections in share prices that come with it are all a normal part of market action.

Downward pressures

Rising interest rates and inflation traditionally lead to downward pressure on shares as the improved returns from fixed interest investments start to make them look more attractive. However, it’s worth noting that inflation in Australia is nowhere near the levels in the US where inflation is at a 40-year high of 7.5 per cent. In fact, the Reserve Bank forecasts underlying inflation to grow to just 3.25 per cent in 2022 before dropping to 2.75 per cent next year.ⁱⁱ

Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe concedes interest rates may start to rise this year, with many market analysts looking at August. Even so, he doesn’t believe rates will climb higher than 1.5 to 2 per cent. After all, with the size of mortgages growing in line with rising property prices and high household debt to income levels, rates would not have to rise much to have an impact on household finances and spending.ⁱⁱⁱ

Even with rate hikes on the cards, yields on deposits are likely to remain under 1 per cent for the foreseeable future compared with a grossed-up return (after including franking credits) from share dividends of about 5 per cent.^iv

The old adage goes that it’s “time in” the market that counts, not “timing” the market. So if you rush to sell stocks because you fear they may fall further, you risk not only turning a paper loss into a real one, but you also risk missing the rebound in prices later on.

Over time, short-term losses tend to iron out. Growth assets such as shares offer higher returns in the long run with higher risk of volatility along the way. The important thing is to have an investment strategy that allows you to sleep at night and stay the course.

Chance to review

A downturn in the market can also present an opportunity to review your portfolio and make sure that it truly reflects your risk profile. Years of bullish performances on sharemarkets may have encouraged some people to take more risks than their profile would normally dictate.

After many years of strong market returns, it’s possible that your portfolio mix is no longer aligned with your investment strategy. You may also want to make sure you are sufficiently diversified across the asset classes to put yourself in the best position for current and future market conditions.

A recent study found that retirees generally have a low tolerance for losses in their retirement savings. Retirees often favour conservative investments to avoid experiencing downturns, but this means they may lose out on strong returns and capital growth when the market rebounds.

Think long term

Over the long term, shares tend to outperform all other asset classes. And even when share prices fall, you are still earning dividends from those shares. Indeed, the lower the price, the higher the yield on your share investments. And it is also worth noting that with Australia’s dividend imputation system, there are also tax advantages with share investments.

For long-term investors, rather than sell your shares in a kneejerk reaction, it might be worthwhile considering buying stocks at lower prices. This allows you to take advantage of dollar cost averaging, by lowering the average price you pay for a particular company’s shares.

Investments are generally for the long term, especially when it comes to your super. Chopping and changing investments in response to short-term market movements is unlikely to deliver the end results you initially planned.

If the current turbulence in world markets has unsettled you, call us to discuss your investment strategy and whether it still reflects your risk profile and long-term objectives.

i https://tradingeconomics.com/stocks

ii https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-02/rba-governor-philip-lowe-press-club-address/100798394

iii https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-hub/articles/2022/february/the-rba-ends-bond-buying-but-remains-patient-on-rates-we-expect-the-first-rate-hike-in-august?csid=1135474712While

iv https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-hub/articles/2022/february/the-rba-ends-bond-buying-but-remains-patient-on-rates-we-expect-the-first-rate-hike-in-august?csid=1135474712While

Elevating your mood…naturally

If it’s been a while since you had that wonderful feeling of euphoria, there are measures you can take to elevate your mood by encouraging production of your bodies naturally occurring ‘happy hormones’.

Our hormones control many aspects of our body’s responses and certain hormones are known to help promote positive feelings, including happiness and pleasure.

Happiness is an emotional state that has a profound impact on our quality of life, enabling us to better form relationships, respond to change and deal with challenges that may come our way. There is a strong correlation between happiness and enjoying good physical health too. And there is no such thing as too much happiness in our lives, so whatever your current level is, there is always room for improvement.

Getting a ‘happy’ hit

Hormonal production is quite a complex aspect of human physiology; however we know that hormones are a reflection of your environment, relationships, exercise regime and dietary choices. In fact, recent studies even point to your gut microbes also playing a role on the production of certain hormones.ⁱ What’s exciting about this is you have the power to influence your mood by the choices you make every day.

Here’s a look at how to make the most of these natural mood-boosters.

Get moving

If you’ve heard of, or experienced, a ‘runner’s high’, you might already know about the link between exercise and the release of endorphins.

But exercise doesn’t just encourage the production of endorphins. Regular physical activity can also increase your dopamine – the ‘pleasure’ hormone that plays a motivational role in the brain’s reward system and serotonin – a mood stabiliser that contributes to feelings of wellbeing.ⁱⁱ

You don’t even have to pound the pavement to get the benefits, any intensive cardio exercise like swimming, cycling or rowing can work at stimulating those amazing brain chemicals, just make sure you keep the intensity high, and the routine varied so you are continually pushing yourself at the edge of your comfort zone.

That loving feeling

Oxytocin isn’t known as the ‘love hormone’ for nothing – pleasurable physical touch promotes the production of this chemical, so hugging and cuddling, having a massage, or even patting your pet can have a positive effect in elevating your mood.

Actually, it’s not just touch, any activity that involves positive interaction with others is also beneficial – having a chat with friends can increase oxytocin significantly. Surprisingly, even if you can’t get together in person, a chat on the phone or even connecting with your buddies via social media still works.

Laughter more than the best medicine

If you’ve ever been a bit down and felt much better after watching a funny movie or comedy performance and laughing yourself silly, there’s a scientific reason for your change in mood. Laughter stimulates the production of endorphins and oxytocins and reduces the body’s production of stress hormones.

Even the act of smiling releases those same chemicals and it’s possible to fake it ‘til you make it, as a fake smile has also been known to do the trick.

Music and meditation

Pop on the headphones as listening to music can give more than one of your happy hormones a boost. Different types of music can have different benefits. Listening to instrumental music, for example, especially emotive music that gives you ‘the chills’, increases dopamine production in your brain, making you feel relaxed and at peace. Energetic music with a powerful beat and strong baseline is more likely to increase your endorphin levels, leading to a more euphoric state of mind.

As you can see, there are many ways you can promote these happy hormones, just decide which ones resonate most with you and go for it.

While there are a lot of things that are out of our control which impact how we feel on a day-to-day basis, it is possible to make choices that will support your wellbeing on a hormonal and chemical level and hopefully help you to experience a brighter, happier life.

i https://atlasbiomed.com/blog/serotonin-and-other-happy-molecules-made-by-gut-bacteria/

ii https://www.healthline.com/health/happy-hormone

Market movements & review video – February 2022

February 15, 2022 by victoria

Stay up to date with what’s happened in Australian markets over the past month.

January is normally a quiet month on the economic scene, but not this year. Inflation and speculation about rising interest rates dominated the month, sending global shares tumbling.

Please get in touch if you’d like assistance with your personal financial situation.

February 2022 Newsletter

February 1, 2022 by victoria

It’s February and what a summer it’s been with success on the tennis court and the cricket pitch. Now that the kids are returning to school and we settle back into our ‘’new normal’’ routines, the new year begins in earnest.

January is normally a quiet month on the economic scene, but not this year. Inflation and speculation about rising interest rates dominated the month, sending global shares tumbling. US stocks fell 6% in January while Australian shares fell 7%. After US inflation hit a 40-year high of 7%, the US Federal Reserve is tipped to start lifting rates as early as March.

In Australia, inflation is sitting at 3.5%, while underlying inflation (which excludes volatile items) is at a 7-year high of 2.6%, within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3%. The Reserve has said it won’t lift rates until 2024, or unemployment is near 4% (it fell to a 13-year low of 4.2% in December) and annual wages growth is close to 3% (currently 2.2%). While wages are going backwards in real terms, one third of a panel of 23 economists interviewed by The Conversation expect the Reserve to start lifting rates this year.

One of the big influences on inflation is oil prices, with crude oil near 7-year highs. Brent Crude jumped 15% in January and 65% over the year to US$90.94 a barrel. Aussie motorists paid record prices for unleaded petrol in January, with a national average price of 170.4c a litre.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index fell 8 points to 100.1 points in January, while the NAB business confidence survey fell to a 19-month low of -12.4 points in December on the back of COVID-induces supply chain issues and labour shortages.

The Aussie dollar fell US2.5c in January to close at US70c as the greenback strengthened on rate rise speculation.

Taking cover in changing times

The pandemic has changed the way so many of us live, with jobs, travel and lifestyle all transformed during COVID. Now, as we start emerging on the other side, it may be a good idea to check whether these changes have impacted on your life insurance needs.

In some cases, you may require more cover and in others perhaps less. This is not just down to COVID. Changes to your insurance needs at any given time are a constant throughout your life.

Insurance through the ages

What you need as a single 20-something building your career is generally quite different from your requirements in your 40s when you may be juggling a young family and a mortgage. Then as you approach retirement and beyond, perhaps with your mortgage paid off, your needs change yet again.

On top of these life cycle changes, what may have seemed appropriate before COVID may no longer work. Perhaps you are working fewer hours and as a result have a lower income. Or perhaps you have opted to take early retirement.

Certainly, insurance companies have been mindful of people struggling to pay premiums during the pandemic and have generally honoured payouts on income protection cover if they occurred within that timeframe.

Whatever your circumstances, now is a good time to consider whether your current policies work for you.

What’s covered?

Life insurance is the umbrella term for four main types of cover – death, total and permanent disability (TPD), income protection and trauma.

Death cover is self-explanatory. It pays a lump sum to your nominated beneficiaries when you die. It is often packaged with TPD which covers things like living expenses, repayment of debt and medical costs if you are no longer able to work. If your TPD is held through your super fund, generally this will only be paid if you cannot work in “any” occupation; if it is held outside super, you may be covered if you can no longer work in your “own” occupation.

Income protection cover will pay part of your lost income for a pre-determined time if you get sick or are injured and need time off work. It is particularly useful if you are self-employed or a small business owner as you don’t have access to sick leave.

Trauma cover meanwhile provides a lump sum amount if you are diagnosed with a major illness or serious injury such as cancer, a heart condition, stroke or head injury. Such payments can be a big help with paying medical bills.

Check your super

Death and TPD insurance can often be purchased through your super fund. If, however, you took advantage of the early release of super allowed during COVID in 2020, it could be that you no longer have sufficient savings in your fund to cover the premium payments. Or, if you’ve been out of work due to COVID and not made any contributions to your super for 16 months, your account may have been deemed inactive under super law and closed.

It’s important to note that if you lost your job due to COVID, then any automatic cover in your super with your previous employer may have stopped. If you have a new employer, the cost may have increased. Also keep in mind that income protection insurance doesn’t cover you if you have lost your job due to a business closure or other COVID-related event.

Protect your mental health

One area that has received more attention during COVID is mental health. Not all insurance policies provide cover for mental health without exclusions or additional premiums. Nevertheless, according to the Financial Services Council, insurers paid out $1.47 billion in mental health claims in 2020.ⁱ

If your circumstances have changed, then it may be worth examining whether your life insurance cover still suits your needs and whether there are ways you can save money through lower premiums. For instance, you might reduce the amount you are insured for or remove some of the benefits.

If you would like to discuss your life insurance needs and whether your existing cover is still appropriate give us a call.

i https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-08/insurance-coverage-mental-health-after-covid-19/13122144

Tree change or sea change on the horizon?

Australians are leaving capital cities in droves in a phenomenon being referred to as ‘The Great Relocation’. However, there’s a lot to consider beyond the obvious appeal of waking up to the laughter of kookaburras or enjoying a long walk on the beach.

The terms ‘sea change’ or ‘tree change’ have been around for a while to describe those who decide to make a move from the city or suburbs to a more rural lifestyle.

The pandemic has been responsible for heightening this trend due to frustration with lockdowns and people spending more time at home and in their local area than usual, leading them to reassess their lifestyles and where they would prefer to live. Of course, greater work flexibility as measures were put in place to manage the pandemic, have also been a driving force in the exodus to the regions.

Moving to the regions

There is a long-held belief that the sea change/tree change phenomenon is largely confined to baby boomers or those at or nearing retirement, which is incorrect – as early as the mid-2000s, nearly 80% of people changing from city to regional areas have been under the age of 50.ⁱ

Geographically Sydney and Melbourne recorded large net losses of people through 2020 and early 2021, regions within an hour of those major centres recorded the strongest growth.ⁱⁱ However, statistics show that the population grew in all major regional cities, reversing a 20-year decline in regional Australia’s share of national population growth.ⁱⁱⁱ

The attraction of lifestyle

The reasons for many Australians turning their backs on the big smoke are predominately lifestyle. Those making the break are attracted by the lure of a slower, less hectic life, proximity to the great outdoors, a sense of community made possible by life in a smaller town and last but by no means least, cheaper property prices than those in the big cities.

Things to consider

If the idea of a move to the sea or a rural town is increasingly attractive, it’s important to also consider the potential challenges you may face. For those leaving friends and family behind, there is often a sense of isolation in being far from those you care about, and it can take some time to make new friends and adjust to life in a new community.

It’s also important to consider how the infrastructure in rural areas differs from where you are moving from. If you have children, will you have access to good schools close by? If you are looking to retire, will you have access to the necessary medical facilities as you age? It may also be a good idea to consider local economic forces and job opportunities.

Don’t be hasty!

A knee-jerk decision brought on by a holiday stay in the area under idyllic summer conditions, can be fraught with danger. It’s a good idea to rent in the area or visit regularly over a longer period of time to gauge whether it will be the right fit. If you get it wrong, it can be a stressful and expensive exercise.

According to analyst Mark McCrindle, a sea change or tree change doesn’t work out for one in five people who attempt it, which reinforces the need to do your homework.^iv “People make a decision because they think it’s going to work for them financially or it’s going to be less pressure, less commute time and a nicer lifestyle,” McCrindle says. “But sometimes they find some of these regional areas are too small or too quiet.”

The main thing is to not be swept away by emotion, think about what you value and what you are looking for, and weigh up the pros and cons so that if you make the move it will result in the positive change you are seeking.

i, ii, iv https://www.corelogic.com.au/resources/tree-change-sea-change-what-you-need-know-generate-leads

iii https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-18/migration-to-regional-australia-at-record-levels/100628278

Easing into retirement

As the nation drifts back to work after the summer break, it’s often a time to start putting your New Year’s resolutions into practice. For some, an extended holiday may have convinced you that you are ready for more of the good life and that it’s time to retire.

In the past, that would have meant leaving work for good. These days, retirement is far more fluid.

You might simply want to wind back your working hours. Or you may want to leave your full-time job but keep your career ticking over with part-time or consulting work. Others may dream of leaving the nine to five to run a B&B or buy a hobby farm.

Changing retirement patterns

There are already signs that people’s retirement plans are changing.

In 2019, the average retirement age for current retirees was 55 (59 for men and 52 for womenⁱ), but the age that people currently aged 45 intend to retire has increased to 64 for women and 65 for men.ⁱⁱ

There are many reasons for this gap between intentions and reality. Only 46 per cent of recent retirees said they left their last job because they reached retirement age or were eligible to access their super. Many retired due to illness, injury or disability, while others were retrenched or unable to find work.ⁱⁱⁱ

Retired women were also more likely than men to retire to care for others. But for people who can choose the timing of their retirement, there can be good reasons for delay.

Reasons for delaying retirement

As the Age Pension age increases gradually from 65 to 67, anyone who expects to rely on a full or part pension needs to work a little longer than previous generations.

We’re also living longer. A man aged 65 today can expect to live another 20 years on average while a woman can expect to live another 22 years.^iv So, the longer we can keep working the further our retirement savings will stretch.

And then there’s COVID. If you lost your job or your hours were reduced during the pandemic, you may need to work a little longer to rebuild your savings. Even if you kept your job, you couldn’t go anywhere so you may have postponed your retirement plans. But now the COVID fog is lifting, retirement may be back on the agenda.

Whatever shape your dream retirement takes, you will need to work out how much it will cost and if you have sufficient savings.

Sourcing your retirement income

If you plan to retire this year, you will need to be 66 and six months and pass assets and income tests to apply for the Age Pension. But you don’t have to wait that long to access your super.

Generally, you can tap into your super once you reach your preservation age (between age 55 and 60 depending on the year you were born) and meet a condition of release such as retirement. From age 65 you can withdraw your super even if you continue working full time.

But super can also help you transition into retirement, without giving up work entirely.

Transition to retirement

If you’re unsure whether you will enjoy retirement or find enough to do to fill your days, it can make sense to ease into it by cutting back your working hours. One way of making this work financially is to start a transition to retirement (TTR) pension with some of your super.

Most super funds offer TTR pensions, or you can start one from your self-managed super fund (SMSF). But there are some rules:

You must have reached your preservation age

Money can only be withdrawn as an income stream, not a lump sum

There is a minimum annual withdrawal

The maximum annual withdrawal is 10 per cent of your TTR account balance

Income is tax-free if you are aged 60 or older; if you’re 55-59 you may pay tax on the TTR income, but you receive a tax offset of 15 per cent.

One of the benefits of this strategy is that while you continue working you will receive Super Guarantee payments from your employer. A downside is that you will potentially have less super in total when you finally retire.

Retirement is no longer a fixed date in time, with far more flexibility to mix work and play as you make the transition. If you would like to discuss your retirement options and how to finance them, give us a call.

i, iii https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/retirement-and-retirement-intentions-australia/latest-release

ii https://newsroom.kpmg.com.au/will-retire-data-tells-story/

iv https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death/deaths-in-australia/contents/life-expectancy

Market movements & review video – January 2022

January 15, 2022 by victoria

Stay up to date with what’s happened in Australian markets over the past month.

The global economy and financial markets ended the year as they began, dominated by the pandemic, as the world grappled with a new wave of COVID-19.

Global sharemarkets made some big gains in 2021 on the back of economic recovery and strong corporate profits.

The US market led the way, with the S&P500 index up 27 per cent to finish at near record highs. While in Australia, our vaccination rate exceeded all expectations, as did property and share markets both soaring in 2021.

Please get in touch if you’d like assistance with your personal financial situation.

January 2022 Newsletter – Super Evolution

January 13, 2022 by victoria

It’s January and the start of a new year. Whether you are back at work or enjoying a summer break, we wish you all a Happy New Year and a return to normal life in 2022.

The global economy and financial markets ended the year as they began, all over the place, as the world grappled with a new wave of COVID-19. In December, speculation about interest rate hikes grew on the back of rising inflation. US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell said the Fed would not lift rates until it finished scaling back/tapering bond purchases in March. Fed officials expect three increases in the federal funds rate this year from the current 0-0.25% target to around 1.0%. In Australia, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe said he would not consider further scaling back bond purchases until the bank’s next meeting in February. He insists the cash rate will remain on hold at 0.1% until 2023, but the market anticipates a rate rise later this year.

Australia’s economic growth fell 3.9% in the year to September, as household spending fell during extended lockdowns. As lockdowns ended and businesses began hiring, the unemployment rate fell from 5.2% to 4.6% in November. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment index hit a six-week high of 108.4 in the lead up to Christmas. One cause for optimism may have been rising house prices, which were up 1% in December and 22% over the year.

Consumers also enjoyed some relief at the petrol bowser ahead of Christmas, but global oil prices remain volatile as markets weighs up reduced travel and falling demand for fuel due to Omicron and uncertain supply from OPEC producers. The Aussie dollar finished 2021 at US72.5c, a big drop from where it started at US77c.

2021 Year in Review

Two steps forward, one step back

For the second year running, the pandemic was the focus for policy makers, markets, businesses, and individuals alike.

The year began with hopes that the rollout of vaccines would stem the spread of COVID-19 and allow economies to reopen. Instead, most countries were hit by wave after wave of the virus, periodic lockdowns, and ongoing disruption to lives and livelihoods.

Yet there were also positives. Australia’s vaccination rate exceeded all expectations while property and share markets soared. Investors who stayed the course enjoyed double digit returns from their superannuation, with the median growth fund tipped to return more than 12 per cent for the year.ⁱ

The big picture

If the pandemic has taught us anything, it is to expect the unexpected as new variants of the coronavirus – first Delta and now Omicron – hampered plans to return to a ‘new normal’.

Yet through it all, the global economy picked up steam. In the year to September the two global powerhouses the US and China grew at an annual rate of 4.9 per cent, while the Australian economy grew by 3.9 per cent.

The Australian economy is estimated to have grown by more than 4 per cent in 2021, with unemployment falling to 4.6 per cent ahead of the Christmas rush.

But challenges remain. As global demand for goods and services picked up, ongoing shutdowns disrupted manufacturing and supply chains. The result was higher prices and emerging inflation.

Inflation and interest rates

Australia’s inflation rate jumped from less than one per cent to 3 per cent in 2021. This is lower than the US, where inflation hit 6.8 per cent, but it still led to speculation about interest rate hikes.

The Reserve Bank insists it won’t lift rates until inflation is sustainably between 2-3 per cent, unemployment is closer to 4 per cent and wages growth near 3 per cent. (Wages were up 2.2 per cent in the year to September.) The Reserve doesn’t expect to meet all these conditions until 2023 at the earliest, but many economists think it could be sooner.

While Australia’s cash rate remains at an historic low of 0.1 per cent, bond yields point to higher rates ahead. Australia’s 10-year government bond yields rose from 0.98 per cent to 1.67 per cent in 2021.

Shares continue to shine

Global sharemarkets made some big gains in 2021 on the back of economic recovery and strong corporate profits. The US market led the way, with the S&P500 index up 27 per cent to finish at near record highs.

European stocks also performed well while the Chinese market suffered from the government’s regulatory crackdown and the Evergrande property crisis.

In the middle of the pack, the Australian market rose a solid 13.5 per cent in 2021. The picture is even rosier when dividends are added, taking the total return to 17.7 per cent.ⁱⁱ

Volatile commodity prices

As the global economy geared up, so did demand for raw materials. Commodity prices were generally higher but with some wild swings along the way.

Oil prices rose around 53 per cent, thermal coal prices soared 111 per cent and coking coal rose 37 per cent. Australia’s biggest export, iron ore, fell 25 per cent but only after hitting a record high in May.

Despite demand for our raw materials and a sound economy, the Aussie dollar fell from US77c at the start of the year to finish at US72.5c, providing a welcome boost for Australian exporters.

Property boom

Australia’s residential property market had another bumper year, although the pace of growth shows signs of slowing. National home prices rose 22.1 per cent in 2021, according to CoreLogic. When rental income is included the total return from property was 25.7 per cent.ⁱⁱⁱ

Regional areas (up 25.9 per cent) outpaced capital cities (up 21.0 per cent), as people fled to the perceived safety and affordability of the country during the pandemic. Even so, prices were up in all major cities.

Looking ahead

The pandemic is likely to continue to dominate economic developments in 2022. Much will depend on the supply and efficacy of vaccines to protect against Omicron and any future variants of the coronavirus.

Financial markets will also keenly watch for signs of inflation and rising interest rate. In Australia, inflation is unlikely to be constrained while wages growth remains low, and the Reserve Bank keeps rates on hold.

The wild card is the looming federal election which must be held by May. Until the outcome is known, uncertainty may weigh on markets, households, and business.

i https://www.chantwest.com.au/resources/remarkable-a-10th-consecutive-positive-year

ii https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/Campaigns_Native/yearahead/CommSec-Year-In-Review-2022-Report.pdf

iii https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/housing-values-end-year-221-higher-pace-gains-continuing-soften-multi-speed-conditions-emerge

Unless otherwise stated, figures were sourced from Trading Economics on 31/12/21

Investing on facts not FOMO

Prices for property, cryptocurrencies and shares have all hit records recently. While great news for investors, there’s always a risk that some people will jump into the market because they are afraid of missing out on easy money.

FOMO, or the fear of missing out, has always been around on financial markets, but social media and reality television have taken it to a whole new level.

In the lead-up to the 1929 Wall Street Crash, the saying was that when the shoeshine boy or taxi drivers started giving you share tips, it was a sure sign the market was running ahead of itself. Rather than a signal to buy, it was probably time to bail out or bide your time.

These days, social media has become the new shoeshine boy.

A long history

This fear of missing out goes back even further to the mid-1600s Dutch tulip market bubble. At its height, the cost of the rarest tulip bulb was the equivalent of six times the average wage. People rushed to buy tulips on credit for fear of missing out. Inevitably, the tulip bubble burst, devastating investors and the Dutch economy.

A much more recent example of a market getting overheated was the dotcom boom at the turn of the century when people paid top dollar for shares in companies with no history of profits.

Two decades later, and there are concerns that FOMO may be a factor in the rise of property, shares and cryptocurrencies.
Over the past year, Australian house prices have jumped 22 per cent on average and more in some parts of the country.ⁱ People are scared that if they don’t get in now, then they will never get a foot on the property ladder.

Global share price to earnings (PE) ratios are also at high levels. Some argue that high prices are justified by low interest rates while others worry that some companies may be valued on an overly optimistic view of future earnings.ⁱⁱ

Cryptocurrencies are complex

But it’s the focus on cryptocurrencies that has some market veterans concerned, not least because these are complex new instruments that are not well understood.

At the end of the day, you should always understand where you are putting your money and how it fits your investment objectives and risk profile. If a big drop in price would keep you awake at night, then crypto may not be for you.

In its typically understated style, the Reserve Bank has warned that “the current speculative demand for cryptocurrencies and their surge in value is likely to reverse”.ⁱⁱⁱ

Meme stocks are also an area of concern. These are companies made popular with retail investors through social media sites like Reddit. Examples include AMC and Gamestop.

They are what used to be called pump-and-dump stocks, popularised in the movie The Wolf of Wall St. The only investors to really benefit are those who got in at the beginning and sold in time to realise their gains; not the ones who bought at the peak of the frenzy.

Think long term

Investments should always reflect your long-term objectives. Jumping from one investment to another just because somebody says it’s a good thing can be dangerous.

In the words of Warren Buffett, it pays to be counterintuitive with the market. Rather than follow the crowd “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.

But humans being human, tend to do the opposite and pay the price. It’s an age-old maxim that in the long run, growth assets like shares and property tend to outperform other asset classes. You won’t enjoy those long-term gains if you are buying and selling in reaction to short-term market moves.

That’s not to say you should set and forget your investments. For instance, when the market is booming, it may present an opportunity to realise some of your gains, sell any duds, and reinvest the proceeds when bargains emerge.

If you are considering an investment but unsure about its worth or where it might sit within your overall portfolio, give us a call.

i https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2021-10/211101_CoreLogic_Oct_homevalueindex_Nov1_2021_FINAL.pdf

ii https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradmcmillan/2021/09/20/how-can-we-tell-if-the-market-is-overvalued

iii smh.com.au

Stepping stones to reach your goals

The calendar turns over to a fresh, brand new year, full of promise, so how do we keep these promises we make to ourselves and get to the end of the year with our resolutions intact and goals realised?

We all start out with good intentions when we set our objectives for the year to come, but motivation notoriously wanes with time and has the potential to sabotage our chances of achieving our dreams.

While many studies reinforce the notion that willpower struggles after only one month, a study tracking respondents over the course of a full year suggested that at around the three month mark half of resolutions fall over, increasing to a failure rate of around 82% by years end.ⁱ

Monthly micro goals

One way to deal with our waning motivation, instead of setting one daunting goal to be achieved over the period of a whole year, is to come up with a series of monthly, smaller goals. That will give you 12 ‘mini goals’ which ideally need to be achievable on a daily basis. The theory is that if you follow the same pattern for around 30 days, you’ll be establishing this pattern as a habit that you are likely to continue into the future. Each successive month will see you build on that success.

Working towards an end goal

Part of the key to making this approach work, is to ensure that all your monthly micro goals are working towards an overarching end goal. Your micro goals need to follow a theme.

This is where you can come back to your New Year’s resolution and base your theme on what you want to achieve for the year. Say your theme for the year is around career aspirations – for example achieving that promotion. Your first month could simply be setting aside some time each day to network and meet people within the organisation – improving your interpersonal skills. The next month might be focused on exploring tools to improve your productivity…and so on as you work your way through each successive month.

If your priority is to work on your health and wellbeing, and end the year capable of running ten kilometres, it’s also important to set some micro goals that get you there. Again, you can start small – a way of working incrementally towards your goal might be to start by drinking more water, then a month dedicated to getting more incidental exercise in your day, then a month focused on improving your diet and losing a little weight, working slowly up to lacing up your boots, hitting the track and increasing your endurance.

Smaller goals add up with time

We are calling them micro goals for a reason, it’s important to not bite off more than you can chew. The key is how they add up. Viewed alone these smaller goals may not seem like a lot, but the shorter duration makes it a lot more likely you’ll stick at them, developing good habits that will hopefully accrue, rather than fade over time. The fact that you are in effect starting afresh every month also gives you a much better chance of success.

Add some support into your plan

Don’t be afraid to put in some processes to help you get there – it can be a good idea to use online apps to aid or track your progress. It can also help to dangle the carrot and build in some rewards for when you get to the end of each month successfully. Tell friends and family what you are working on and celebrate your successes with them.

By the end of the year, you can look back with satisfaction at each little milestone as a personal win and you’ll have stepped towards, and finally reached an overall goal that may have seemed intimidating unless broken down into manageable chunks.

So what are you waiting for? Get out that calendar and pencil in a goal a month to reach your dreams this year.

i http://www.richardwiseman.com/quirkology/new/USA/Experiment_resolution.shtml

Market movements & review video – December 2021

December 15, 2021 by victoria

Stay up to date with what’s happened in Australian markets over the past month.

As November drew to a close, and we look towards the end of the year, all eyes were on the new strain of the coronavirus, Omicron. 

Please get in touch if you’d like assistance with your personal financial situation.

Summer 2021

December 6, 2021 by victoria

December and summer have finally arrived, and you can almost hear the collective sigh of relief as 2021 draws to a close.

As November drew to a close all eyes were on the new strain of the coronavirus, Omicron. Global shares fell sharply on fears that Omicron will spread more easily than other variants and existing vaccines may be less effective against it. Europe is already facing a spike in COVID cases and new lockdowns. Global oil prices fell 10% on Black Friday (November 26) on the threat of renewed border closures and reduced demand for air and road travel. Markets are likely to remain volatile until there is confirmation that a new vaccine can be created quickly, which experts believe is likely.

Elsewhere, the economic smoke signals were mixed. Australian company profits rose 4% in the September quarter, and 5.4% over the year, supported by government subsidies. Not surprisingly, the NAB business confidence index rose 11.2 points in October to 20.8, its second highest result on record. But wages growth is lagging, up 0.6% in the September quarter and 2.2% over the year. Unemployment increased from 4.6% to 5.2% in October while underemployment rose from 9.2% to 9.5%. While retail sales jumped 4.9% in October as lockdowns ended in some states, consumers remain jumpy. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell over 2 points in October to 106.0. Adding to hip pocket nerves, the national average unleaded petrol price hit a record high of 170.4c a litre in November. The Aussie dollar fell 4c in November to US71.2c.

Whatever your plans for the holidays, we wish you and your family a happy festive season.

Kicking financial goals in 2022

After a difficult year of COVID disruptions and uncertainty, the summer holidays can’t come quickly enough. It’s a chance to refresh and reflect on the year that was and hopefully set some goals for year ahead.

Yet this year more than most, many of us may feel that our personal and financial priorities have shifted depending on our experience of the pandemic.

So now that vaccination levels are rising, borders are reopening and we can all plan with a little more certainty, why not take this opportunity for a financial reset in 2022.

Regrets, we have a few

While many people’s lives were turned upside down by lockdowns, not everyone suffered financially.

If you kept your job or were able to access COVID disaster payments, you may have saved money. Holiday plans were scrapped and restaurants, theatres and leisure activities were shut down.

In a recent survey of 2,000 Australians by the Australian Financial Planning Association of Australia (FPA), 11 per cent said their financial position had strengthened over the past 12 months while a further 46 per cent said nothing much had changed. But 17 per cent said their position had worsened and nearly one in four reported being stressed by their financial position.ⁱ

Worryingly, the survey found one in five Australians didn’t have enough savings to get through the crisis and 23 per cent felt stressed about their finances. Their biggest regrets were not saving enough, spending too much on take-aways and non-essential items and not paying off debt quickly.

While many of us learned some painful lessons during the pandemic, that may be an opportunity to reset our priorities and do better in future.

Lessons learned

The enforced lockdowns made us value simple things like the importance of family and community. But uncertainty about the economy, jobs and our personal finances also encouraged many of us to reassess our approach to money.

According to the FPA survey, 45 per cent of Australians say the pandemic has made them more frugal. Large numbers also say they have increased savings (44 per cent), paid down debt (41 per cent) and created a budget (39 per cent).

Smaller but still significant numbers responded to the pandemic by topping up their super, investing more outside super or increasing health insurance.

The big question now is, can we stick to these good habits and build on them in the year ahead.

Goal setting

When it comes to goals for the next 12 months, the FPA survey found people were split between hitting a savings goal (52 per cent) and going on holiday (44 per cent) as their top priority. Paying off the mortgage and reducing credit card debt were also popular.

Given the recent strong performance of shares and residential property, starting an investment plan is also high on the list of priorities. This is especially so among younger people who are using new digital platforms to take greater control of their investments, in and out of super.ⁱⁱ

As restrictions ease and the economy recovers, hopefully we can all manage to have a bit more fun next year but get our finances in good shape at the same time.

To get the balance right, it’s important to give your personal and financial goals the attention they deserve and draw up a plan to help you achieve them.

3 tips to help reach your goals

A financial plan doesn’t have to rely on complex financial products or strategies. In fact, getting the simple things right is often best.

Build a cash buffer to tide you over in an emergency. This was one of the biggest lessons of the pandemic. It’s generally recommended that you have around three months’ living expenses at call. This might be in a savings account or in a mortgage redraw facility.

Manage your cash flow. Even high-income earners can fall into the trap of spending more than they earn. So, take a financial snapshot, noting your monthly income from all sources and the balances on your savings accounts. Then subtract your monthly expenses, including debt repayments. If there’s a shortfall, look for cost savings.

Draw up a financial plan. We are here to help you set short and long-term goals, develop strategies to achieve them and provide support to keep you on track.

If you would like us to help you kick some goals in 2022, don’t hesitate to get in touch.

i All statistics in this article (unless otherwise stated) are from the FPA Money & Life Tracker Freedom Edition 2021: A snapshot of how 2,000 Australians have fared since COVID-19, https://fpa.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021_FPA_Money_and_Life_Tracker_Freedom_Edition.pdf

ii https://www.morningstar.com.au/smsf/article/millennials-are-making-the-switch-to-smsfs/216142

Investing in inflation

Inflation appears to be firmly on the rise and while that is bad news for consumers it’s not necessarily bad news for investors. In fact, inflation may provide new opportunities.

In the September quarter, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 3 per cent year on year, a level previously not forecast to be reached until 2023. The underlying rate of inflation, which removes extreme price changes and is generally considered a more accurate reflection of what is happening on the ground, increased 2.1 per cent on an annual basis.

Now the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is looking at bringing forward interest rate rises in the wake of this growing inflation rate. When it does, it will be the first time in 11 years that the bank has raised interest rates.

This development is highlighted by the RBA’s relaxing and then abandoning its target for the 3-year government bond rate (the benchmark) which it had originally set at 0.10 per cent. By the start of November, the market had pushed this rate above 1 per cent, 10 times the RBA’s original target, effectively forcing its hand.ⁱ

The RBA’s stated aim is to keep the inflation rate within its 2-3 per cent target range. But some seasoned market observers are forecasting the rate could get as high as 3 to 5 per cent by 2023, and perhaps a touch higher.ⁱⁱ

So why is this happening now?

Factors behind the rise

There has been a combination of factors leading to the uptick in inflation, mostly resulting from events stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and the prospect of a recession fading fast.

These influences include cost pressures from global and local supply chain bottlenecks along with higher energy prices, an uptick in rents and rising insurance costs.

A shortage of labour, partly on the back of the absence of migration and casual overseas workers throughout the pandemic, is now also putting pressure on wages.

For some months, there has been debate over whether inflation was just a transitory event in the wake of COVID, but it is beginning to look more permanent as the months go by.

Opportunities for investors

Inflation is not all bad news for investors, but it may change the way you think about your investments.

The low interest rate regime that led to soaring property prices has left many investors with healthy gains in asset prices, adding to their wealth. While the move to higher interest rates may make borrowing money harder and take some of the boom out of the housing market, it is worth remembering the gains made to date are unlikely to be completely wiped out.

But it’s not just property; all major asset classes are highly valued at present.

Rising inflation traditionally erodes the value of bonds and cash. As interest rates move north, the appeal of those bonds offering the current low rates will fall and in turn so will the price.

As a result, it may be worth assessing whether your asset allocation to bonds is still appropriate for your circumstance and long-term goals, as floating rate bonds or inflation linked bonds may be more appropriate.

Quality stocks still attractive

The reduced appeal of longer-term bonds traditionally increases the appeal of equities as a better hedge against rising inflation.

Also, with a once-feared double dip recession now looking unlikely in North America, Europe, China and Japan, many companies are expected to enjoy continued growth in what is still a low interest rate environment.

While sharemarket returns may be more modest than in recent times, many companies still offer potential. Quality companies offering a high return on earnings, a lowly geared balance sheet and the ability to set prices, will continue to provide attractive investment options.

Inflation and interest rates

The challenge with a higher inflation rate is that it could outpace any growth in interest rates, leaving those weighted towards long-term fixed interest investments in a situation where their money is being eroded over time.
As the global economy begins to shift gears, now may be the time to consider reviewing your portfolio to reflect the changing conditions.

If you would like to know more about whether your current investment mix is appropriate for your circumstances and the times, please give us a call to discuss.

i https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-24.html

ii https://theconversation.com/australias-reserve-bank-signals-the-end-of-ultra-cheap-money-heres-what-it-will-mean-170928

The gift of giving this Christmas

Christmas is a time when we come together to celebrate with our family and friends. And, for those who haven’t been able to see friends and family due to border closures, it will be an even more joyous occasion this year.

Gift-giving is typically a big part of celebrating Christmas and provides a great opportunity to reach out to support those who have done it tough this year.

Charity is not just about money

There are so many ways you can give back to the community. It’s not always about making a monetary contribution – giving your time is just as valuable. Volunteering at the local soup kitchen on Christmas Day or helping at your local Foodbank or food rescue service like OzHarvest can be just as valuable. Donating clothes, blankets or any other household items that will help those less fortunate or vulnerable is always welcome, especially at shelters for both men and women.

In recent years, gift bags or hampers are becoming increasingly popular too. It’s as simple as buying non-perishable food items or toiletries from the supermarket and creating a food hamper or gift bag.

Every Christmas, Kmart has the Wishing Tree Appeal whereby you can purchase a gift for a child and leave it under the tree in the store.

If you’re unable to donate cash or volunteer your time, a blood donation at the Australian Red Cross is another option. They are always in desperate need of donors. And when you donate, you’ll not only get to enjoy a little snack afterward, but you’ll receive a text message a few days later telling you exactly where your donation went.

Donating regularly

During the pandemic, there was a significant decrease in the number of donations made to charities across the country, and unfortunately, the amount of money we donated declined as well. People were unsure about job security, whilst others had chosen to donate specifically to the Bushfire Appeal early in 2020.ⁱ

Now we are coming out the other side of the pandemic economically, reports show donations are rebounding and are on the rise again. Those who donate, do so regularly and they usually have specific charities that they donate to. This may be due to personal circumstances or to support something they are passionate about.

If you’re considering donating to a charity this Christmas, you may want to do a little research first to find out exactly how your money is being distributed. How much goes directly to those in need and how much is being spent on admin and running costs. This is an important factor for many and may impact your decision in terms of which charity you choose to support.

The positive effects of donating or volunteering

Donating – whether it’s our time or money – will always make us feel good, but it shouldn’t be the key driver. Think about the impact your donation or time will have on those who are on the receiving end.

Donating will not only have a positive effect on the recipient, but it can also be beneficial to your children. You can teach them from a young age that giving back to the community can be very rewarding for many reasons.

Maximising your donation

There are so many charities to choose from in Australia, but it’s also worth considering international organisations as well.
You may prefer to donate locally, but if you decide to choose an international charity, your dollar will more than likely go a lot further. Especially in developing countries, where they may need clean water, medical supplies, or even infrastructure to build schools for young children.

Remember, if you donate $2 or more, you may also be able to make a claim on your donation at tax time.

So, whether you’re volunteering at a homeless shelter or soup kitchen or giving a monetary donation – helping others who are less fortunate could be the best gift of all this Christmas.

To find out more about volunteering or donating in your local city go to – Christmas In Australia

i JBWere and NAB Charitable Giving Index

Market movements & review video – October 2021

October 5, 2021 by victoria

Stay up to date with what’s happened in Australian markets over the past month.

Our October update takes you through key economic indicators, as September was a mixed bag on the economic front.  After reaching record highs in August, global sharemarkets stumbled in late September.

Please get in touch if you’d like assistance with your personal financial situation.